A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has has something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
